COPENHAGEN/LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) – Danish brewing giant Carlsberg (CARLb.CO) reported a “solid” performance in China for the first quarter of 2025, though it cautioned that U.S. tariffs could influence both consumer spending and raw material costs in the months ahead.
Carlsberg, the world’s third-largest beer producer, maintained its full-year forecast despite slightly falling short of analysts’ expectations for first-quarter sales. The company’s CEO, Jacob Aarup-Andersen, noted that although the company had not yet observed a decline in consumer behavior in April, following the announcement of significant U.S. tariffs, the brewing giant remained cautious. “History shows that prolonged uncertainty tends to affect consumers’ purchasing decisions,” Aarup-Andersen stated in a phone interview with Reuters.
While Carlsberg has limited direct exposure to U.S. tariffs—since the United States represents a small portion of its global sales—the company acknowledged potential global economic repercussions. Businesses across various sectors have warned that tariffs could dampen consumer confidence, trigger inflation, and escalate raw material costs. Carlsberg is particularly focused on how tariffs might impact the prices of key materials, such as barley, sugar, and aluminum, which may fluctuate in different regions.
Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen, an analyst at Jyske Bank, pointed out that Carlsberg’s minimal exposure to the U.S. market could position it as a relatively stable investment, potentially benefiting from the situation. “Carlsberg might be somewhat of a winner,” Laustsen remarked.
Despite these external challenges, Carlsberg remains optimistic about its growth prospects for 2025, projecting an organic operating profit increase of between 1% and 5%. The company’s shares, which have gained 30% since the beginning of the year, were down 1.9% as of 0726 GMT.
In the first quarter of 2025, Carlsberg’s global sales reached 20.12 billion Danish crowns ($3.07 billion), a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, though slightly below the 20.4 billion crowns anticipated by analysts.
Carlsberg’s performance in China, its largest market, saw a 2% rise in sales volumes, primarily driven by its premium beer offerings and strong sales in major cities. However, sales of local mainstream brands in western China suffered due to weak consumer sentiment. The Chinese beer market contracted by 4% in 2024, and Carlsberg anticipates a modest low-single-digit decline in the first quarter of 2025.
Despite these challenges, Aarup-Andersen remained cautiously optimistic about the Chinese market, noting that while consumer behavior was expected to remain subdued, demand is expected to show slight improvement compared to last year.
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