As wine industry consultant Allison Langhoff reflects on the future of wine, her thoughts turn unexpectedly to coffee. “I always talk about coffee,” she says—an analogy she believes the wine world would do well to consider.
Decades ago, coffee was a binary choice—black or with cream and sugar. Today, consumers are met with a complex spectrum of options: cortados, cold brews, flat whites, and nitro infusions. Langhoff argues that wine must evolve in a similar fashion, warning that the industry is failing to meet the preferences of an increasingly diverse and discerning public.
A Tumbling Market
Wine’s decline is well-documented. According to Silicon Valley Bank’s 2024 wine industry report, U.S. wine sales fell by 3.4% last year, marking the fourth consecutive year of contraction. Global figures mirrored the domestic slump: wine consumption in 2024 reached its lowest point since 1996, according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine.
Industry leaders are sounding alarms. At January’s Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento, Jeff Bitter, president of the Fresno-based Allied Grape Growers, called for the removal of 50,000 acres of California vineyards. Locally, Monterey County has witnessed closures and property listings: Pierce Ranch shuttered its tasting room in 2023; Boekenoogen listed 333 acres for sale, and Jouillian, Massa Estate, and Bernardus’ Marinus vineyard followed suit.
The causes are layered but begin with oversupply. The U.S. wine boom, launched by the 1976 “Judgment of Paris” and stoked by Hollywood hits like Sideways, fueled decades of growth. Interest rates were low, conglomerates were flush, and consumer demand was robust.
Garrett Bowlus of Albatross Ridge recalls private jets landing in Oregon’s Willamette Valley during the early 2000s, as collectors stocked cellars with cases. In Napa, family-owned wineries dwindled, replaced by corporate portfolios. “They were thinking market share,” Bowlus says. “That was not sustainable.”
Heidi Scheid of Scheid Vineyards concurs. “There was a lot of optimism,” she notes, pointing out that growth since 1991 was largely uninterrupted. A market correction was inevitable.
Demographics and Drinking Habits
Even so, winemakers now acknowledge deeper shifts beyond simple economics. Gallup data indicates young adults are increasingly abstaining. In 2023, only 38% of Americans aged 18–34 reported drinking regularly, compared to nearly 50% of middle-aged adults. A growing health consciousness is also reshaping choices—52% of young adults now believe even moderate alcohol consumption is harmful, up from 34% just five years ago.
This generational shift is compounded by cultural diversification. In 2000, less than one-third of Americans aged 18–34 were nonwhite; today, that figure is nearly 50%. Historically, nonwhite Americans consume less alcohol than their white counterparts. Langhoff argues that the wine industry has failed to meet this evolving demographic landscape, too often targeting only upscale, traditional consumers.
“Let’s be honest,” she says. “If you want to attract a younger audience, you have to do something different.”
Innovation or Inertia?
Despite warnings, many in the industry have been reluctant to adapt. New formats—cans, boxed wines, low-alcohol variants—have often met resistance from purists. Yet competing beverages, including flavored waters, cannabis-infused drinks, spritzers, and pre-mixed cocktails, have surged.
Still, some see opportunity in the disruption. Langhoff and others advocate for innovation: spritzers, tiered wines for different markets, and approachable packaging. “Downturns are opportunities to reinvent,” she notes.
Scheid Vineyards is one of the exceptions. Its low-alcohol brand, Sunny with a Chance of Flowers, was launched not just for young drinkers, but also for those in Scheid’s own generation seeking a lighter alternative. The wine clocks in at around 9% alcohol, well below the 14% standard. Its bright branding and sugar-free blends, including sparkling rosé and Cabernet Sauvignon, target occasion-based drinking rather than prestige.
Scheid has also collaborated with New York chef Josh Rosenstein on Hoxie, a line of canned wine spritzers with flavors such as lemon ginger rosé and peach blossom blush. “We want flavor,” Scheid says. “Just because something is a trend doesn’t mean it lacks substance.”
Boutique Wineries Hold Steady
While mid-sized wineries face existential pressure, smaller producers may be better positioned. Monterey County’s boutique winemakers are finding niches in artisanal production, sustainable practices, and personalized tasting experiences.
Mike Veseth of The Wine Economist notes that Baby Boomers’ love of wine led producers to assume younger generations would follow. But that assumption has not held.
Still, tasting rooms have not emptied. Bowlus reports steady foot traffic and says Albatross Ridge is planning more events to boost visits. “People still love the personal experience,” he says. “There’s real authenticity here.”
Wine Market Council research shows that adults aged 21–34 still account for nearly 30% of wine drinkers. And even as U.S. consumption fell by nearly 100 million gallons from 2022 to 2023, Americans still consumed 899 million gallons last year—far more than the 565 million gallons at the start of the millennium.
A New Strategy for a New Era
For Langhoff, the path forward is clear. Wineries must abandon rigid traditionalism and create products that speak to the next generation’s values—convenience, transparency, health, and inclusivity.
Large conglomerates appear to be pivoting. Gallo’s 2023 acquisition of Hahn Winery, the 40th-largest in the country, suggests interest in mid-sized producers with existing distribution. Constellation Brands, Treasury Wine Estates, The Wine Group, and Gallo now control about 50% of U.S. wine revenues, according to IBIS World.
Industry analysts warn that mid-sized wineries may be “lost in the middle,” unable to match conglomerates’ scale or boutique producers’ agility. But amid these headwinds, Monterey’s wine community remains cautiously optimistic.
As vineyard manager Matt Shea puts it, “We keep turning out good wine. That’s all we can do.”
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